Summary
Philadelphia’s largest tax streams—Wage and Earnings and Real Estate—are forecasted with high accuracy, typically within three percent of actual results. In contrast, smaller and more volatile revenue sources like the Realty Transfer and Amusement Taxes show far greater forecasting errors, reflecting their sensitivity to economic shifts and one-off events. By comparing 21 years of projections to actual collections, this report highlights the importance of maintaining strong forecasting methods and caution when relying heavily on unpredictable revenue streams.