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Precision in Projections: Evaluating Philadelphia’s Tax Revenue Forecasts and Volatility
Philadelphia’s largest tax streams—Wage and Earnings and Real Estate—are forecasted with high accuracy, typically within three percent of actual results. In contrast, smaller and more volatile revenue sources like the Realty Transfer and Amusement Taxes show far greater forecasting errors, reflecting their sensitivity to economic shifts and one-off events. By comparing 21 years of projections…
Staff Report on State Funding of the Philadelphia Department of Human Services
The State of Funding of the Philadelphia Department of Human Services report examines the financial challenges facing Philadelphia’s Department of Human Services (DHS), with a focus on state funding processes. It highlights issues with Pennsylvania’s needs-based budget system, identifying inefficiencies and inequities that result in unpredictable funding levels and increased financial burdens on the City.
From Virtual Realty to Full Value Realty: Preparing for Reassessment
The From Virtual Realty to Full Value Realty: Preparing for Reassessment report evaluates Philadelphia’s transition to full-value property assessments and the fiscal and policy implications of the change. It discusses the potential impact on property tax revenue, municipal debt limits, and taxpayer burdens, while recommending strategies to ensure a fair and transparent reassessment process.
Revenue Stress in the City of Philadelphia
The Revenue Stress in the City of Philadelphia report assesses the pressures on Philadelphia’s revenue base and the structural challenges limiting its financial flexibility. It examines economic trends, demographic shifts, and the reliance on volatile tax sources, emphasizing the need for strategic fiscal planning to mitigate future risks.
Philadelphia Must Reduce Its Need for Tax Revenues
The Philadelphia Must Reduce Its Need for Tax Revenues report examines the City’s continued reliance on tax-supported spending despite economic growth and budget surpluses. It argues that Philadelphia must reduce expenditures funded by tax revenues to sustain long-term financial stability and create capacity for future tax reductions.
Hitting the Bullseye: Revenue Prediction Precision in Philadelphia and Peer Cities
PICA’s Revenue Prediction Precision issue brief analyzes Philadelphia’s accuracy in forecasting revenues compared to 11 peer cities, finding that the City is among the most precise, with a mean error of ±4.0%.